Ken Segall, a former advertising executive behind many of Apple's best work, has an interesting piece on his blog discussing Microsoft's marketing decisions with the Surface. It's an interesting read. He's not a fan to say the least.
Microsoft has a tablet problem and I'm not sure they know it. This is a new problem. Just over 48 hours old actually.
Microsoft has been absent from the tablet space since Apple launched the iPad in April of 2010. That has just recently changed with the introduction of their Surface product.
The concept of this product has been billed by Microsoft to be one of ’no compromises’. That is, the user can have all the advantages of a tablet and a traditional computer in one device. You just need to decide which mode you want.
A very important part of the Surface concept is the cover keyboard. Microsoft all but tells you that you need to buy one to use the device. In the tablet interface, it's not entirely necessary, but it’s helpful. In the traditional space, it's a requirement. It seems likely that the creation of these covers and their almost full sized keyboards dictated the aspect ratio and size of the Surface.
The actual usability of this concept is open for debate. Reviews range from loving the concept to thinking it’s a disaster. It's very early, so improvements to the software and people's willingness to embrace the concept are likely. The Surface is a pretty large screened device when used as a tablet. Many reviewers have commented that the device wants to be used on a flat surface with a keyboard attached. Microsoft seems to be sending the same message in it’s advertising. In other words, it's not optimized for the tablet experience.
I believe it's this combination of size and optimization priority that will cause a problem very soon.
It's well known that Apple chose a different path when they created the iPad. They chose to differentiate the tablet experience from the experience of using an Apple computer. The operating systems share a common core, but they're totally separate. iOS apps don't run on OS X, and OS X apps don't run on iOS.
Apple launched the iPad with a 9.7" screen. They customized iOS to run natively on this screen in a 4:3 aspect ratio. In 30 months they've sold 100 million iPads. There are now over 275,000 apps built specifically for this screen. iPads have had a starting price of $499, with the year old model available for the last 7 months for $399. This is all well known.
Because no manufacturer has fielded a competitive tablet to compete with the iPad, Android manufacturers and Amazon have introduced smaller screened and cheaper devices. These products are thought to have sold well, although exact numbers are unknown. This market has never been thought of as anything but a discount space. It's a place a buyer can go if they can't afford a larger device or if the smaller form factor works better for your usage case.
That changed on Friday with the introduction of the iPad mini. This is a premium device with amazing build quality and it can run every app ever created for iPad. I'm certain this model will very quickly outsell the bigger iPad. Cheap Android models and the Kindle Fire will continue to sell because they're still cheaper.
I expect the smaller tablet market to surpass the sales of larger tablets within a quarter.
What's Microsoft's answer? I don't think they have one and that's a huge problem. To use the new Surface as it’s truly designed, a buyer needs to spend $600 for the Surface and a keyboard cover. You can enter the iPad ecosystem for $329.
Microsoft can’t scale down the Surface because that keyboard cover is so essentially a part of the user experience. A keyboard cover attached to an iPad mini sized device would be marginally useful. The other problem is getting around Windows 8 in the traditional desktop space. Already reviewers are commenting on how small many of the touch targets on the Surface are because they're obviously not optimized for touch. This same interface will be unusable on a 7” device.
Just when Microsoft is finally making a concerted effort to be a tablet player, the market is going to shift away from them. The folks in Redmond can't catch a break these days.
MG Siegler takes journalists to task over coverage of Microsoft's Surface launch. I don't have much to add really.
There's so much to unpack following Microsoft's Surface announcement. The eventual launch of Surface signals a radical departure in their business model, away from solely supplying software and towards a more Apple inspired one. As Steve would say, they're going to attempt to make the whole widget. This raises all kinds of interesting questions, many of which are pondered by Horace Dediu over at Asymco.
Interesting times ahead.
I'm impressed that Microsoft has publicly thrown it's hat into the ring against Apple, in competition against either the iPad or the MacBook Air. I don't know which. It's also one of the many questions Harry McCracken asks over at Time.