Cheap
Philip Elmer DeWitt asks the question, "Has Apple ever ben cheaper?". The answer may be surprising.
Apple's Record Results
Apple posted record results for their first quarter of 2013 today. The press release is here. In quick summary:
Apple® today announced financial results for its 13-week fiscal 2013 first quarter ended December 29, 2012. The Company posted record quarterly revenue of $54.5 billion and record quarterly net profit of $13.1 billion, or $13.81 per diluted share.
These results have not impressed the analysts and AAPL shares are trading down 10% in aftermarket trading. Maybe Amazon has the right idea in avoiding profit at all costs.
Not Boring
Horace Dediu takes a look at the history of Apple's stock volatility and the subsequent earnings growth that follows each bear market period since the introduction of the iPod.
AAPL 2012 Q4 Earnings
Apple released their fourth quarter earnings results this afternoon. Visit Apple for the complete details and a link to the earnings call audio (available for 2 weeks).
A quick summary:
- Quarterly Revenue $36.0 billion
- Net profit $8.2 billion or $8.67 per diluted share
- Gross margin 40.0%
- International sales 60%
- iPhone sales 26.9 million (58% growth over year-ago)
- iPad sales 14.0 million (26% growth over year-ago)
- Mac sales 4.9 million (1% growth over year-ago)
- iPod sales 5.3 million (19% decline over year-ago)
Apple's guidance for 2013 Q1 is:
- Quarterly Revenue $52 billion
- Diluted earnings per share of about $8.67
It's safe to say if there's a disappointment anywhere, it's the iPad numbers. They're weaker than I would have expected. Apple's explanation seems plausible, but perhaps the iPad mini is arriving on the scene at the right time.
I couldn't be more optimistic about Apple's future product line. I think the biggest question mark for next quarter is Apple's ability to manufacture enough products to put in the hands of willing buyers. If they can ramp the new products fast enough, and Tim Cook seemed to believe there were reasons to be optimistic, it will be a monster quarter.
Last year, Apple's Q1 blew right past their guidance to the tune of $9 billion. If they can reproduce that beat, Apple's quarterly revenue will skip the $50 billion mark and land in the low $60 billion range. If they can't ramp quickly enough, the quarter will still be remarkably strong and set up Q2 to be the monster.
It's a good time to be a fan of Apple products.
Full Disclosure: I own a very small number of Apple shares.
Predicting Apple's Share Price
Horace Dediu takes an interesting look at the growth potential of Apple's stock price over at Asymco. What makes this different is his approach. The look is based not on stock speculation, but rather, Apple provided capital expenditure information. Very smart and definitely worth a read.
Full disclosure: I own a very small stake in AAPL stock.